Making Autonomy Work in Public Transport

By Laura Herzig - April 2025

When Public Transport Goes Driverless: What’s Really Changing?

Yes, robotaxis exist. And they work. Driving people around in California and in Wuhan. Which is impressive from a technical standpoint.

But Europe isn’t the U.S. or China. We’re not building mobility systems from scratch, nor are we solving for car-dependency in sprawling suburbs. What we are doing is doubling down on what already works: public transport as the backbone of how people move, backed by political ambition, public investment, and climate legislation.

In this context, autonomy isn’t a disruption, it’s a tool. And if we use it right, it can help us move more people using fewer vehicles, cut emissions, fill every seat, and reach those still underserved by traditional services.

That means Europe should not be chasing the current robo-taxi dream and rather start asking better questions:

  • How can autonomy strengthen mass transit, not replace it?

  • Where can it fill the gaps — first/last mile, late night, low-density zones — without creating new ones?

  • And how do we redesign regulation, procurement, and operations to support those goals?

To answer those, we need to look beyond the technology and vehicle itself, and examine how autonomy reshapes the system around it. Here are five tensions that are already redefining how autonomous technology and public transport intersect. And where the real work lies next.

Ruter (PTA in Oslo) piloting with Holo, MobileEye, Moovit and Nio.

1. The roles are shifting — and the old PTA/PTO dynamic will change

Autonomous tech is blurring traditional boundaries. Vehicle producers are becoming operators. Operators are stepping into tech procurement. Public authorities are taking on the responsibility of orchestrating whole ecosystems — not just fund routes or sign contracts.

It’s not just “who does what” that’s changing. It’s “who’s responsible when something goes wrong,” “who controls the data,” and “who’s accountable for performance.” That means regulation, roles, and incentives all need a reboot.

2. Procurement is still stuck in the diesel era

Most tenders today are still built for a world of fixed assets, long depreciation cycles, and predictable tech. But autonomy development moves fast: Updates are digital, platforms are modular, and business models are still evolving.

Cities that want to play in this space need new procurement tools, room for iteration, and the ability to test and scale in real-world settings without spending two years writing a spec.

3. The driver shortage isn’t going anywhere

In Norway, Sweden, and beyond, operators are facing a growing staffing crisis. Bus drivers are aging out, and new ones aren’t coming in fast enough.

Autonomy won’t replace drivers everywhere, but it can help relieve pressure in the least attractive time slots and geographies, such as late-night loops or rural connectors.

4. Fleet utilisation needs a new operating model

Static schedules and peak-hour patterns don’t cut it anymore. The real value of autonomous vehicles is in flexibility: one vehicle doing multiple jobs throughout the day, or adapting to real-time demand.

While Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) isn’t new, autonomy makes it scalable. The desired outcome are shorter wait times, fewer transfers, and more direct routes for ns are handling this in wildly different ways. Europe leans regulatory. The U.S. bets on the private sector. Asia tends to integrate tech and public coordination more seamlessly.

7. Autonomy still costs more than people think

“Take out the driver and you slash the cost.” In theory, yes. In practice, not yet. Between safety operators, remote monitoring, high-end sensors, and redundant systems, the current cost per km is still high.

The key will be scaling smartly and building an aligned business model. Where the money comes from shapes the outcomes and if we want AVs to support climate and sustainability goals, the underlying financing model must reflect that.


1. The roles are shifting — and the old PTA/PTO dynamic will change

Autonomous tech is blurring traditional boundaries. Vehicle producers are becoming operators. Operators are stepping into tech procurement. Public authorities are taking on the responsibility of orchestrating whole ecosystems — not just fund routes or sign contracts.

It’s not just “who does what” that’s changing. It’s “who’s responsible when something goes wrong,” “who controls the data,” and “who’s accountable for performance.” That means regulation, roles, and incentives all need a reboot.

2. Procurement is still stuck in the diesel era

Most tenders today are still built for a world of fixed assets, long depreciation cycles, and predictable tech. But autonomy development moves fast: Updates are digital, platforms are modular, and business models are still evolving.

Cities that want to play in this space need new procurement tools, room for iteration, and the ability to test and scale in real-world settings without spending two years writing a spec.

3. The driver shortage isn’t going anywhere

In Norway, Sweden, and beyond, operators are facing a growing staffing crisis. Bus drivers are aging out, and new ones aren’t coming in fast enough.

Autonomy won’t replace drivers everywhere, but it can help relieve pressure in the least attractive time slots and geographies, such as late-night loops or rural connectors.

4. Fleet utilisation needs a new operating model

Static schedules and peak-hour patterns don’t cut it anymore. The real value of autonomous vehicles is in flexibility: one vehicle doing multiple jobs throughout the day, or adapting to real-time demand.

While Demand Responsive Transport (DRT) isn’t new, autonomy makes it scalable. The desired outcome are shorter wait times, fewer transfers, and more direct routes for ns are handling this in wildly different ways. Europe leans regulatory. The U.S. bets on the private sector. Asia tends to integrate tech and public coordination more seamlessly.

7. Autonomy still costs more than people think

“Take out the driver and you slash the cost.” In theory, yes. In practice, not yet. Between safety operators, remote monitoring, high-end sensors, and redundant systems, the current cost per km is still high.

The key will be scaling smartly and building an aligned business model. Where the money comes from shapes the outcomes and if we want AVs to support climate and sustainability goals, the underlying financing model must reflect that.


Arriving in a Waymo robotaxi.

How Can we Help?

The next step isn’t proving that autonomy works. It does. The real question is how we make it work for us and finding solutions to the five challenges identified above.

I want to help you to move from pilot to purpose. Not just by testing vehicles, but by designing the structures around them — regulation, operations, financing, and governance — so that autonomy actually delivers on the goals it’s meant to serve.

The Beta mobility team and I can support at different stages:

  • Strategy, in defining what the right move forward is. We help PTAs, PTOs, and regulators make sense of their role, map their options, and align on ambition.

  • Design, in crafting how things should work. That includes developing new operating models, funding structures, and service designs that reflect real-world constraints.

  • Operations, in the actual roll-out. Translating strategy into practice, aligning partners, setting up cross-sector initiatives, and ensuring the right lessons are captured and used.

We don’t build vehicles. We build the conditions for them to succeed — in public systems, under public goals, with public value in mind.

Want to learn more about autonomy?

Laura is an experienced advisor in public transport and autonomous mobility, with insight into procurement, regulation, fleet strategy, and system design. She’s ready to help cities and agencies make autonomy work. For people, not just tech.

Laura Herzig

Partner

laura@betamobility.com

+47 462 47 747